Somehow, despite being 25(?), I have managed to keep an active interest in politics. While I don’t ever plan to identify myself as Republican or Democrat, I am interested in how Super Tuesday will go for the GOP.
I am, without any doubt, certain Obama will win re-election. If I had any doubts, they were squashed after the fatigue-inducing GOP nomination race, where instead of “Who is the frontrunner?” a more common question was “Who said the craziest thing?” The winner for that, so far, has been Rick Santorum but more on him later.
Tomorrow will be the be-all-end-all for Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. Ron Paul will lose, but he won’t drop out until later, if 2008 is any evidence. That leaves Romney, who is the front runner in Delegates now, Santorum, who is the front runner in crazy, and Gingrich is in third.
So, who has to win what?
Gingrich needs to dominate Super Tuesday to pose as any type of a threat. If he loses Georgia, his home state, he is out. CNN explains that Gingrich needs Super Tuesday more than anyone else at the moment. I think if, by some luck, he comes out in first or second, Gingrich will be a death knell for the GOP. He has proven himself to be a seedy, snake of a man whereas Obama is a family man who has been married to the same woman for 19, going on 20, years. Newt’s married average is about 16 years (19 with his first wife, 19 with his second, and 12 with his current). If the GOP wants to present somewho is loyal, trustworthy, and cares about the values, of which he has very little to say about “family”, they will have to look elsewhere.
Moving on to Romney, one can quickly see that Romney will have an uphill battle in debates against Obama. Romney’s networth is estimated to be between $190 million and $250 million. To put this in perspective, if you worked 24 hours a day from ages 18 to 72 at the 2010 annual household income of $55,000, or ~$26.44, you would only make about $12.5 million for your entire life. That’s 6% of what Mitt Romney has now. Arguably, his money should not be a disqualifying factor for his ability to lead, but it is impossible to assume he can relate to people who will never see even a fraction of his current assets. If the GOP put him against Obama, and that seems to be the plan, I think this disconnect will be a strong avenue of attack. There are tons of quotes that show his inability to relate to the people, and I think his immense wealth will hobble him in the end.
Ron Paul will not win the GOP nomination. Even if he somehow he managed to earn a lot of votes, the GOP would not let him survive. A lot of people seem to like Ron Paul because he stays true to what he’s been saying all along, and if something is not reflected in the constitution, it should not be done. The problem is Ron Paul is extremely hypocritical when it comes to standing by this. Ron Paul is a staunch Episcopalian who doesn’t believe in evolution (1). He also decided to grossly misinterpret the founders of the country to be theocrats. Most of the country founders were deists and atheists. Ron Paul also has an assortment of nefarious characters who are strong racists, including former KKK Grand Wizard and owner of Stormfront, Don Black. Ron Paul also faces one major problem that his entire political platform is about: it appeals to the fringe. In theory, his ideas aren’t terrible: no more fiat currency, no international intervention, no amnesty for illegals, no taxes, but in application, each of those ideas appeal to fringe groups that the GOP doesn’t want to be associated with. The fiat currency and no taxes people are a group of people who believe the entire system is going to collapse tomorrow and that they are all being manipulated by some shadowy group called the Federal Reserve. I have seen one extension of this hatred of the Federal Reserve become some anti-Semitic tirade. The “no amnesty” fits in perfectly with Don Black and his ilk. The no-foreign intervention also hits on some people who are not in the mainstream consciousness. These associations, as well as ties to Alex Jones and 9/11 Truthers, paints Ron Paul as a crazy person to the average voter. I would enjoy seeing a debate with someone who promises to uphold the constitution face a constitutional lawyer. Ron Paul’s biggest benefit is he represents nearly the exact opposite of what Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich do. That could give him some muscle for Super Tuesday.
Rick Santorum. Rick Santorum has been the latest presidential candidate since Howard Dean to spout of with the most insane nonsense ever. Here’s a quick list of some of his insanity:
Rick Santorum doesn’t believe in separation between Church and State.
Rick Santorum seems to be hell-bent on reversing decades of progress for the sake of staying true to his, roughly, Catholic beliefs. The problem is America is not, and never will be, Catholic. It’s a collection of a lot of beliefs. By imposing his viewpoint as the sole driver for some his policies, he is forcing his religion on people who don’t agree with it and don’t want it.
If I had to make a prediction, Super Tuesday will favor Romney first, then Santorum by a long second, then probably, Paul. Gingrich will be discarded completely. Tomorrow has 437 delegates via primaries and caucuses. That’s enough to change the entire playing field.
I will end this post with a note: if you have no interest in this topic, get interested. History is littered by rulers who took over via universal apathy. I am not mandating everyone go out and vote, but I am requesting that people become at least a little familiar with the issues in order to prevent some unknown taking power that no one would have wanted.